Intended audience

This tool was designed for use by health providers with_ their patients. Please take these results to your doctor or other health provider to discuss your personal risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. _IC-RISC(TM)_ (“Interactive & Contextual RISk Calculator”) currently applies only to _white males, black males and white females, which are the groups with the most accurate information on incidence and risk factors. The incidence of EA is very low in black females, and little risk factor information is available specifically for hispanics or persons of other ethnic/racial backgrounds.


Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) is an aggressive cancer usually arising in the lower part of the esophagus near the stomach. Once quite rare, its incidence has risen substantially over the past four decades in the U.S. and many other developed countries. It is most common among white males, although incidence rates in other groups also have risen. Unless diagnosed at an early stage, long term survival with EA remains poor. Therefore preventing_ the cancer and _detecting it at an early stage remain the most effective options.


Epidemiologic and clinical research has revealed many risk factors which, taken together, can help estimate a person’s probability of developing this cancer. These include demographic factors, host and lifestyle factors, medications, family history, and genetic markers. IC-RISC(TM) uses an individual’s risk factor profile to estimate his/her absolute risk of developing EA over the next ten years.

While incidence of this cancer has increased, it is still relatively rare. To put this in perspective, risk of developing EA is displayed in the context of risk of dying from other cancers or from causes such as injury, stroke or heart disease. In this way the tool can help inform discussions between a health provider and patient regarding:

  • how personal risk of EA fits into the “bigger picture” of health and disease,
  • whether preventive actions are indicated to possibly reduce risk of EA and other conditions, and
  • whether additional tests and procedures might be warranted to identify and manage those with high risk profiles.


Enter values for risk and preventive factors on the left side of page, Separate tabs are available to aid in calculating BMI and categorizing usual physical activity. The estimated 10-yr probability of developing EA is displayed on the right side in two ways:

  • a “thermometer” with color coded risk (on a log scale), along with an estimate of its uncertainty, and
  • a set of 1,000 circles depicting the expected number who will (red fill) and will not (unfilled) develop the cancer in the next ten years.

(Note: Disease incidence and mortality rates used in IC-RISC(TM) are specific for the U.S.; comparison mortality rates are specific for age, sex and race, but do not take into account other risk factors.)


This application should not be considered, or used as a substitute for, medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. This site does not constitute the practice of any medical, nursing or other professional health care advice, diagnosis or treatment.